The Golden State Warriors will visit south beach this evening to take on the defending champions Miami Heat and their star player Lebron James and we’ll be looking to identify the best bet!
Golden State are best known for one of the best scoring back courts NBA has seen with the partnership of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, but few sides have a duo as dangerous as Miami’s Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. Unfortunately for this spectacle and neutral fans, Dwayne Wade probably won’t play.
The Warriors have won six straight, whilst Miami have won eight of their last nine, including a 114-107 win over this Golden State side.
We spoke about what it means to cover a point spread in our last NBA article (for those of you unfamiliar with the sport) and likened it to a Football handicap, remember? Miami are a -4 favourite on the point spread this evening.
It’s a pretty low spread to have on such a solid team, but betting trends show that Miami have failed to cover their last five games where they were a favourite on the point spread. Golden State, however, are 13-5 at covering the spread in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Despite their recent good form, the Warriors have yet to come across a team as good as Miami in their winning run, and the Heat are making well above than 51% of their shots over the last in their last six games. It may not sound a lot, but the NBA average is for all teams over this season so far is just 46%.
In their previous outings, Miami triumphed over Denver by a score of 97-94 as a 3.5 favourite (failing to cover the spread) and the Warriors dumped Orlando via a 94-81 score.
Unfortunately for Golden State, they’ve struggled on the back of beating teams by double digits. Their 13 point win over Orlando leaves them in a tricky betting situation here, as they’ve failed to cover their last five point spreads after winning their previous game by 10+.
Despite their poor form when it comes to covering the spread recently, you can’t expect any negative trend to carry on for too much longer with a team as good as Miami. The hosts have won 7 of the last 9 in this series, and , Golden State are just 1-5 ATS (against the spread) when facing a team like Miami who are winning more than 60% of their games.
Their recent form should turn around soon and my betting advice is to take Miami -4 at your preferred bookmaker!
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