July Cup Betting Tips

Publish: 21.04.2018

The July Cup is one of the feature races of the July Festival at Newmarket. Held on the final day of the festival, the July Cup is one of the richest flat races of the year with a prize fund of half a million pounds. This year’s renewal sees the best three-year-old sprinter, Caravaggio, try to prove his credentials against his elders. 

Top Betting Tips

Caravaggio to win at 6/5 with Betfred

Harry Angel each-way at 6/1 with Betfair

The Tin Man to win at 6/1 with Winner

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Betting Analysis

It’s no surprise that Caravaggio is the firm bookies’ favourite for the July Cup. The only surprise is that Aidan O’Brien’s horse is available as big as 6/5 with Betfred.

O’Brien has won the race three times over the years and he’s entered six into this year’s renewal. It remains to be seen how many actually run but having multiple options in the field should help Caravaggio to get the sort of race he likes.

The three-year-old is unbeaten in his six starts to date. As the class of his opponents improves, so does Caravaggio as evidenced by his impressive performance in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.

The addition of more experienced horses with big wins of their own under the belt makes this the toughest test that Caravaggio has faced but he’s proven to be a top class sprinter and ticks many of the boxes in terms of the July Cup trends so make sure to back him.

The next two below Caravaggio in the betting are Limato and Harry Angel.

Last year’s winner, Limato, will rightly get plenty of support in the betting but the five-year-old looked considerably below his best in each of his last three starts and seems too short at 5/1 with Bet365.

Harry Angel, meanwhile, looks decent value at 6/1 with Betfair. Part of the Godolphin team much was expected of the three-year-old and there’s still plenty of time for him to kick on.

He finished second to Caravaggio at Royal Ascot and will struggle to overturn that form but an each-way bet seems sensible.

The final horse to get on board for the July Cup is The Tin Man at 6/1 with Winner.

This five-year-old made a disappointing return to action at York in May but he was very much back to his best at Royal Ascot where he won the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. As well as beating Limato that day, he also beat Tasleet who some fancy for Saturday’s race.

If he turns up to Newmarket in that sort of form, The Tin Man will be the one most likely to beat Caravaggio.

Race Details

The July Cup is a Group 1 sprint run over a distance of just six furlongs. Open to horses aged three and older, it’s the sixth stage of the Global Sprint Challenge and the winner is often viewed as premier sprinter in Europe.

The calibre of this race is clear by the list of previous winners. The legendary Lester Piggott is the leading jockey with 10 wins while Charles Morton and Vincent O’Brien both trained the winner five times in their stellar careers.

Past Five Winners

2016 – Limato, ridden by Harry Bentley, trained by Harry Candy
2015 – Muhaara, ridden by Paul Hanagan, trained by Charlie Hills
2014 – Slade Power, ridden by Wayne Lordan, trained by Edward Lynam
2013 – Lethal Force, ridden by Adam Kirby, trained by Clive Cox
2012 – Mayson, ridden by Paul Hanagan, trained by Richard Fahey

Key Trends to Consider

Each of the last three renewals of the July Cup was won by the bookmakers’ favourite. However, in the 12 years before that, favourite-backers ended up in the clover on just two occasions.

The other interesting thing to note about the odds is that all but three of the last 15 winners went off at 12/1 or shorter.

In those 15 years, only one horse aged over five has won the race and in the last decade, only two five-year-olds have triumphed.

Previous renewals have also shown that it helps to have run at Royal Ascot, to be relatively lightly raced for the season and to have at least had a crack at a Group 1 or 2 previously.

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