Lingfield Derby Trial Betting Tips – 12th May 2018

Publish: 05.10.2018

Top Betting Tips

Thrave to win at 9/1 with Paddy Power

Wax And Wane each-way at 14/1 with William Hill

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You would think that the whole point of a Derby trial is to test horses with the potential to ride in the Classic race over a track that’s as similar as possible to Epsom Downs.

Like Epsom, Lingfield is a left-handed track with some pretty severe undulations that can throw horses off their stride. However, leading trainers are increasingly less likely to send their main Derby contenders to Lingfield for fear that they won’t enjoy racing up and down hills twice in such quick succession.

Those fears have kept many of the most fancied options for the Derby away from Lingfield this weekend with the field headlined by the Aidan O’Brien trained Kew Gardens who is currently a 33/1 shot for the Epsom Classic.

Past Five Winners

2017 – Best Solution, ridden by Pat Cosgrave, trained by Saeed bin Suroor
2016 – Humphrey Bogart, ridden by Sean Levey, trained by Richard Hannon
2015 – Kilimanjaro, ridden by Ryan Moore, trained by Aidan O’Brien
2014 – Snow Sky, ridden by Jim Crowley, trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2013 – Nevis, ridden by Ryan Moore, trained by Aidan O’Brien

Expect the Favourite to Get Beaten

The news that Nelson will not be heading to Lingfield saw Kew Gardens quickly move into favouritism for the Lingfield Derby Trial at 6/4 with Paddy Power.

It’s tough to know just how good Kew Gardens can be but he’s certainly a horse who is best over the middle distances. Despite finishing strongly in his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, it was clear that an extra furlong would have greatly improved his chances of winning and the glimpses he showed as a juvenile means it’s understandable that the bookies fancy his chances.

That said, there isn’t too much to be excited about at 6/4. Especially given the other options in the betting that are available at much more tempting prices.

Thrave’s Breeding Suggests a Change of Tactic

Thrave only made two appearances as a two-year-old but they were impressive enough for people to start suggesting that he was in the mix for the Derby. That talk was quashed by his trainer, Henry Candy, who said, “he’s not a Derby horse as he won’t get beyond 10 furlongs,” but it appears as though things have changed.

It was thought that Thrave would start his three-year-old season in a trial for the Guineas as Candy believes him to have the potential to be a top quality miler. It could be well worth paying attention to the fact that the plan has now changed.

Everything about his breeding suggests that he has the stamina to get the Derby trip comfortably and Candy has spoken glowingly about the horse’s attitude and ability. He’s as big as 100/1 with some books for the Derby but those odds may be about to be cut severely as Thrave has a real chance at Lingfield after a very good draw where he is a best price of 9/1 with Paddy Power.

Wax And Wane Another Interesting Option on First Start of the Year

Like Thrave, the Lingfield Derby Trial is the first race of 2018 for Wax And Wane.

Karl Burke has high hopes for a horse he believes will turn into an excellent middle distance performer towards the end of this year and as a four-year-old. He was, however, happy enough with what Wax And Wane did as a two-year-old to suggest that he has a real chance of claiming a place on Saturday.

It remains to be seen just how competitive Wax And Wane will be in a Class 1 Listed race but we think it’s worth having even a small stakes bet to find out at 14/1 with William Hill.

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