Sky Bet Chase Betting Tips – 27th January 2018
Top Betting Tips
Wakanda to win at 12/1 with Sportingbet
Thumb Stone Blues at 20/1 with Boylesports
It’s that time of year where punters are starting to think about the Grand National. We’re still almost three months away from the big race at Aintree but the trials for the National have already started in earnest.
The latest warm up for the Grand National takes place on Saturday with the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
This three mile Listed handicap chase is open to horses aged five and older. Although it is viewed as an important step along the way to the Grand National, no horse has done the double in the last decade.
Will that change this year?
Past Five Winners
2017 – Ziga Boy, aged 8, ridden by Tom Bellamy, trained by Alan King
2016 – Ziga Boy, aged 7, ridden by Brendan Powell Jr, trained by Alan King
2015 – If In Doubt, aged 7, ridden by Tony McCoy, trained by Philip Hobbs
2014 – The Rainbow Hunter, aged 10, ridden by Nick Scholfield, trained by Kim Bailey
2012 – Calgary Bay, aged 9, ridden by Dominic Elsworth, trained by Henrietta Knight
Profiling a Sky Bet Chase Winner
When looking for trends to help us pick out a winner of the Sky Bet Chase it makes sense to start with Ziga Boy, winner of the last two renewals.
In neither race was the Alan King horse the favourite. That chimes with the recent renewals with just two winning favourites in the last 12 editions. Moreover, just four of the last 12 favourites claimed a place.
More things to consider include the rating – favour horses rated 130 or above – horses who have won over three miles or further before while you need a good reason to back any horsey carrying more that 11 stone.
Money Pouring in For the Favourite
The biggest move in the betting ahead of the Sky Bet Chase is the favourite, L’Ami Serge. Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old is only getting stronger at the head of the market and while he’s developed into a top class chaser, doubts remain about him.
The big question is whether he can find enough off the bridle to win a big field race like this. We’re not so sure he can so recommend looking elsewhere, especially at a general 9/2.
Definitly Red and Frodon are next in the betting but it may be worth ignoring the pair of them. They each hold entries at Cheltenham on Saturday which looks the most likely destination.
That leaves us with the middle and bottom of the market. Thankfully, that’s home to some very good value.
Wakanda’s Classy Jumping Makes Him the One to Beat
It’s been a frustrating season so far for connections of Wakanda. The nine-year-old has run well in each of his three appearances but has yet to win any of them.
Wakanda’s latest outing was at Wetherby on Boxing Day where he lost by just a head to the favourite. He was carrying 11-4 that day but was rallying hard in the closing stages which suggests that being penalised a pound by the handicapper won’t overly hamper his chances on Saturday.
He has decent form at Doncaster and is a classy jumper who has never fallen so at 12/1 with Sportingbet, Wakanda gets our recommendation.
In terms of an each-way bet, it may be worth taking a chance on Thumb Stone Blues at 20/1 with Boylesports.
Kim Bailey’s charge is another who has run well without getting a win. Bailey himself believes that’s because he’s not good enough to win a quality novices’ chase and he looked more competitive last time out in a handicap.
Backing Thumb Stone Blues is a gamble but it’s one that others have taken. He’s proving a popular choice with no weight to carry so take that 20/1 while it lasts.