Stevie B’s Carling Cup Final Preview
Today Sir Alex Ferguson faces ones of the many managers touted as his potential successor in what is the first major cup final of this campaign. Martin O’Neill’s men have not been defeated by Ferguson’s this campaign and like last season Carling Cup Final against Tottenham it is not unfeasible to see this one going beyond the 90 minute mark.
Ferguson will be without Rio Ferdinand and may go with either last year’s penalty saving hero Ben Foster or possibly Thomas Kusczak today in place of the evergreen Edwin Van Der Sar. Foster’s form has been inconsistent which Villa would certainly look to exploit if he starts. The Champions have been exposed in recent weeks by both Everton and AC Milan defensively with Jonny Evans and Wes Brown struggling in particular. The young Brazilian Rafael whilst excellent going forward struggles with his defensive duties and Gary Neville’s injuries have taken there toll with him also struggling this term. Aston Villa scored in both fixtures versus Ferguson’s side and there is no reason to believe they cannot make it three out three tomorrow. Manchester United have tended to cope well against pacey frontmen this campaign but were exposed by Jermaine Beckford, who might have scored more than his single goal in the cup tie at Old Trafford and in Agbonlahor Martin O’Neill possesses a very similar threat. Without the speedy Rio Ferdinand in the backline and with Vidic still to show his best form this campaign Agbonlahor may be Villa’s best bet to expose United’s defensive frailties. He has already scored at Old Trafford and could add to his tally against Utd at Wembley.
Whilst Ferguson may have concerns defensively, in Wayne Rooney the Manchester club arguably possess Europe’s most in form frontman. It has been reported Ferguson may consider resting Rooney but I would suggest there about the same chance of Rooney being benched as Wayne Bridge re-signing for Chelsea in the summer. Rooney’s brilliance has masked the fact that Antonio Valencia has also hit super form and torn West Ham apart in midweek. Rooney will be tightly marked by a defence that has impressed consistently even against the big four and this pushes me away from his markets. However it may be worth backing Valencia as provider (assist markets) as his delivery has been superb in recent weeks. Darron Gibson struck twice versus Tottenham earlier in the campaign and strikes a ball very well from distance. Definitely one to consider in the first or anytime goalscorer markets.
To conclude I would suggest the 7/2 generally available on the Villains would appear a tad on the big side although the bookies obviously feel the added cup experience that Manchester United possess may hand them a significant advantage at ‘Wem-ber-lee’. Unpredictable team selection particularly regarding Manchester United makes tipping difficult prior to the line ups being released but expect both sides to score in the 90 minutes and don’t discount a repeat of last season’s penalty shoot-out.
Stevie B’s tips:
Agbonlahor first goalscorer (15/2 – William Hill)
Richard Dunne Man of the Match (14/1 – William Hill) – if Villa are to win this it is hugely likely that Dunne will have had to have kept Rooney (Europe’s most inform striker) quiet, this price looks to big.
Darron Gibson first goalscorer (14/1) or last goalscorer (14/1)
Probable line ups:
Manchester United: (4,4,2): B.Foster – Rafael, N.Vidic, J.Evans, P.Evra – A.Valencia, D.Gibson, D.Fletcher, P.Ji Sung – D.Berbatov, W.Rooney
Aston Villa (4,4,2): B.Guzan – C.Cuellar, J.Collins, R.Dunne, S.Warnock – A.Young, J.Milner, S.Petrov, S.Downing – J.Carew, G.Agbonlahor
Manchester United Absentees: Nani (suspended), Anderson, Hargreaves, Giggs, Ferdinand, O’Shea (injured)
Aston Villa Absentees: Reo-Coker, Harewood (injured)
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