Stevie B’s Champions League 2nd Round 2nd Leg Preview
Midweek 16 th/17 th March
Chelsea v Inter Milan
Following something of a sticky patch for John Terry, Carlo Ancelotti and Chelsea in general there have been positive signs in the past two victories over Stoke City and West Ham that the Londoners are edging back towards the form they illustrated earlier in the campaign. Didier Drogba continues to find the net but it is Florent Malouda’s form which may please Ancelotti most as there is little doubt some of his recent performances (such as in the 4-1 win against the Hammers) have been the best Chelsea fans will have seen of him since his arrival from Ligue 1.
Once again Chelsea will play without key personnel – Essien, Bosingwa and Ashley Cole all seem unlikely to feature again this season whilst 3 rd choice goalkeeper Ross Turnbull may start in goal with Cech and Hilario missing.
Inter Milan with the returning Jose Mourinho with be a far tougher test for the Blues than either of their past two opponents but Ancelotti must be heartened at Inter’s recent unconvincing domestic performances which have re-opened the race for Lo Scudetto. Since defeating Cagliari 3-0 on February 7 th aside from the 1 st leg win against Chelsea and a win at Udinese they have failed to win. This run has seen draws against Parma, Napoli, Sampdoria and Genoa. Perhaps most alarmingly on Friday night Mourinho’s men lost 3-1 at Catania so Ancelotti is far from the only manager with domestic concerns.
With this recent form Mourinho may need to be at his tactical best to prevent Ancelotti’s side progressing. He must ensure the attack minded full-back Maicon keeps a close eye on Malouda who could pose real difficulties for Inter. Bearing in mind a 1-0 Chelsea win will send the home side through. Inter have lost 3 times (they remain invincible at home) in Serie A on the road and in the past 7 games in all competitions have scored 7 goals suggesting that they may find it tough to get the away goal I believe they require if they are to progress.
Punters may also be wise to examine the card market regarding this one. The 1 st leg in Milan passed relatively without incident but you feel with Mourinho’s emotional return there is every chance the cards could be flying. The Managers are far from friends and that could translate onto the pitch in this crucial clash. Chelsea have had 4 men red carded domestically this term whilst 6 Inter players have been sent for an early bath (including Muntari at Catania).
Expect Chelsea’s firepower to eventually push them into the quarter-finals and perhaps push Mourinho towards Real Madrid. Whatever happens though the self proclaimed ‘Special ones’ return to Stamford Bridge will be unmissable.
Sevilla v CSKA Moscow
Sevilla enter this second leg tie with an invaluable away goal courtesy of Álvaro Negredo following the 1-1 draw in Russia. CSKA Moscow have played very limited football since their domestic season ended in December and that coupled with a long journey to Spain and the fact they must score at least once makes them distinct outsiders here.
Sevilla have drawn their last two home La Liga games but in their last 9 games in all competitions have only conceded more than one goal in the ties at Zaragoza and in the thrilling 3-2 defeat against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. The Madrid performance illustrated that Sevilla can rise to the test against the very best and the likes of Navas, and Diego Perotti can take full advantage at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuan if the Russian’s are somewhat below par either due to lack of match practice or due to the long journey across Europe.
The Russians under Leonid Slutsky possess some talented individuals such as Akinfeev and midfield schemer Dzagoev but I feel they needed to have obtained a more decisive advantage from the 1 st leg if they were to progress and as such I feel their European campaign will end in Seville.
Barcelona v VFB Stuttgart
After a sequence of disappointing results that included defeat at Atletico Madrid, draws in the 1 st leg in Stuttgart and at Almeria and narrow victories over Malaga and Getafe, Barca returned to form with a 3-0 win against Valencia. Despite this relatively ‘poor’ period the Atletico loss is Barcelona’s only league defeat in 26 games and quite remarkably they have conceded just 16 goals in that time.
Statements such as Iniesta’s on Messi’s performance against Valencia will not fill the Stuttgart players with confidence: "Messi seems to have no limit and we hope he carries on like this." Messi was superb against Valencia at the 4/5 available on him to strike at anytime holds far more appeal than the 1/5 available for the home win. Stuttgart have been inconsistent this season in the Bundesliga and won’t prevent the Spaniards from prevailing here but Barcelona have looked somewhat more susceptible defensively in the past month than previously and punters may be rewarded in the by backing the likes of Cacau or Pogrebniak in the anytime goalscorer markets.
Bordeaux v Olympiakos
Bordeaux host Olympiakos hoping to join compatriots Lyon in the last eight of the Champions League. A strange loss of form has seen the Ligue 1 title race re-ignite however I see Laurent Blanc’s men still overcoming the Greeks. Indeed having been 8 points clear of the chasing pack Blanc’s men suddenly find themselves only ahead of unfancied Montpellier on goal difference.
Despite this temporary loss of form which has seen Bordeaux record a single victory in the last 6 fixtures they should have comfortably enough to at least repeat the narrow 1-0 victory recorded in Greece. Bordeaux have far more quality than the Greek visitors who use Lomana Lua Lua and Matt Derbyshire in attack who at best had distinctly average scoring records in the Premiership. Considering Bordeaux have conceded just 22 goals in 26 league games this term illustrates that neither will get too many opportunities against Blanc’s side. Bordeaux’s quality can be seen in their results in the Champions League – Bayern Munich were beaten in Germany whilst Juventus were held in Turin so this side has real resilience.
Laurent Blanc rested several key players in the 0-0 draw against Monaco including influential French playmaker Yoann Gourcuff. Expect Blanc’s men to possess both the freshness and quality provided by Gourcuff, Chamakh, Gouffrann and Plasil to end Olympiako’s European campaign this week.
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