Stevie B’s England v Egypt Preview
Egypt arrive at Wembley having retained their African Cup of Nations crown with a narrow victory over Ghana in Angola. Egypt have not qualified for the World Cup since 1990 despite consistently impressing in the Cup of Nations with victories in 2006, 2008 and now 2010. Fabio Capello clearly views this tie as ideal preparation for the World Cup group stage tie against Algeria although in my opinion Hassan Shehata’s side are tougher opponent than the side Capello’s men will encounter.
John Terry is likely to feature but will not captain the side following his various tabloid misdemeanours. The man appointed to replace the Chelsea skipper as England Captain is Rio Ferdinand and continued injury problems mean the Manchester United centre-half misses out and Steven Gerrard will deputise. Indeed Capello will have an experimental defence on display against the Egyptians and will surely hope some of his regulars recover prior to the summer tournament. Ashley Cole is out for three months following injury sustained at Everton, Glenn Johnson remains unavailable and Wayne Bridge (Cole’s probable deputy) still feels unable to wear the three lions whilst his former best friend and Chelsea colleague remains in the squad.
Thus of his first choice back four only Terry is available. Anyone who saw the Chelsea captain’s recent performances against Manchester City, Everton and even to an extent Wolves will be aware he is desperately struggling for form. Encouragingly for Capello David James is back in the squad and has despite the shambles in front of him (and the financial shambles off the field) has generally performed adequately at Portsmouth. However Egypt can surely take advantage of England’s missing personnel (as opposed to Perroncel who Capello probably now wishes had gone missing!). Wes Brown has struggled recently at Manchester United and was exposed badly during England’s friendly against Brazil. Both Warnock and Baines (Cole’s likely deputies) are capable but are very short on experience at this level and can be exposed. Matthew Upson, Joleon Lescott and Ryan Shawcross are all competent but are not in Rio Ferdinand’s class bracket and an England defence minus Glenn Johnson, Ashley Cole and Rio Ferdinand not only lacks experience but also looks short on pace.
Punters must be quick to take advantage of England’s absentees defensively. Egypt possess players who can hurt England even at Wembley and may view this as a big opportunity given there non participation in the World Cup. Playing against a backline that will be far from the most experienced fielded by Capello, Egypt possess the quality to expose the hosts. Mohamed Zidan and Amr Zaki have European experience and have scored goals outside Africa in Mohammad Aboutrika the Egyptian’s possess a hugely underrated playmaker.
In terms of backing England the 4/11 generally on offer should draw few takers as this will be trickier than that suggests. England will create chances against the Egyptians who I expect will play with a lot of freedom and there is value in backing the stand-in skipper to strike. Gerrard has been poor for much of the current campaign but has scored in his last two outings against Blackburn Rovers and in the UEFA Cup. The stand-in skipper can be backed at 8-1 (Coral) to open the scoring and 7-4 to strike at anytime (generally) and as he is a certainty to start I would buy into this. I would also consider James Milner who was one positive from the Qatar fiasco as a man who can strike at some point and once again impress his Italian Coach.
As a mischievous punt how about John Terry to strike? He’s 20/1 to open the scoring (who needs Wayne Bridge anyway?) and 7/1 to strike at anytime with William Hill. Wayne Rooney has been brilliant in front of goal for both his club and national team in the past few months but the odds on Europe’s most in form striker hold little appeal (ditto Jermaine Defoe).
To conclude I fully expect both sides to score in this clash and the 11/4 draw is tempting considering the confidence the African Cup of Nations winners should possess. However Capello is adept at grinding out results and England may just nick this, although I cannot see his side keeping a clean sheet here against a side that have caused top sides including Brazil problems defensively in recent years and can be free-scoring.
Stevie B’s tips:
England to win 3-2 (33-1 – William Hill). Draw 2-2 (20-1 – William Hill)
Steven Gerrard (Eng) first goalscorer (8-1 – Coral)
James Milner (Eng) anytime goalscorer (11-4 William Hill)
Mohamad Zidan (Eyg) first goalscorer (12-1 – Betfred)
Mohamad Aboutrika (Eyg) anytime goalscorer (9-2 – SkyBet)
Mohamad Nagy ‘Geddo’ (Eyg) anytime goalscorer (11-2 – William Hill)
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